January 10, 2008

Because of the diverse conditions of humans, it happens that some acts are virtuous to some people, as appropriate and suitable to them, while the same acts are immoral for others, as inappropriate to them.

By nature all men are equal in liberty, but not in other endowments.
Saint Thomas Aquinas, 1225 – 1274, 
was an Italian Catholic priest in the Order of Preachers, more commonly known as the Dominican Order, a philosopher and theologian in the scholastic tradition… . He was the foremost classical proponent of natural theology, and the father of the Thomistic school of philosophy and theology.

[We have spoken of the benefits and harms of diversity. Is Aquinas saying that virtue is relative, depending on one’s circumstances? As for each of us having different endowments, are we fighting nature as we pursue President Bush’s “No Child Left Behind”?)

1.     “Mexican Immigration Will Solve Itself”

2.     A Not-So-Divine Comedy, Part 3

3.     Announcements

4.     Fun Facts about Kentucky

5.     The Flashback Quarterback:  See What the Scots Are Doing!

6.     Beware and Share:  Can You Believe Your Doctor?

7.     About Montebello E-News and “My Montebello”  

“Mexican Immigration Will Solve Itself”

I found that an interesting headline, and the article is just as interesting.  

Fertility data suggest that the international migration picture is about to change.  As the debate over illegal immigration from Mexico rages in Washington and across the country, and as the administration’s reform bill hangs by a thread, few Americans are aware that this problem is on track to decline, and will eventually become a vague memory.  

There has been a stunning decline in the fertility rate in Mexico, which means that, in a few years, there will not be nearly as many teenagers in Mexico looking for work in the United States or anywhere else. If this trend in the fertility rate continues, Mexico will resemble Japan and Italy—rapidly aging populations with too few young workers to support the economy.  

According to the World Bank’s 2007 Annual Development Indicators, in 1990 Mexico had a total lifetime fertility rate of 3.3 children per female, but by 2005, that number had fallen by 36 percent to 2.1, which is the “break even” point for population stability in developed nations. The large number of women currently in their reproductive years means that there are still quite a few babies, but as this group ages, the number of infants will decline sharply.  If this trend toward fewer children continues, there being no apparent reason for it to cease, the number of young people in the Mexican population will decline significantly just when the number of elderly is rising.  As labor markets in Mexico tighten and wage rates rise, far fewer Mexican youngsters will be interested in coming to the United States.  Since our baby boomers will be retiring at the same time, we could face a severe labor shortage.  

Some politicians fear that we are being“Mexicanized.”  In fact the opposite may be underway.  There have been significant declines in fertility rates across Latin America, but Mexico’s has been unusually sharp. In El Salvador , another source of U.S. immigrants, the rate declined from 3.7 in 1990 to 2.5 by 2005. Guatemala is now at 4.3, but that is far lower than it was in 1990. Jamaica, another source of U.S. immigrants, has fallen from 2.9 to 2.4 over the same period. Chile and Costa Rica, at 2.0, are actually slightly below a replacement rate.  Trinidad and Tobago, at 1.6, is well below ZPG.  For all of Latin American and the Caribbean, a rate of 3.2 in 1990 fell to 2.4 in 2005, a decline of 25 percent.  This means less pressure on the United States from illegal immigrants from the entire area, not just from Mexico.  A powerful demographic transition is well underway, and soon many of these countries may be worried about there being too few babies rather than too many.  We may miss this labor, and wonder how we will replace it.  

What has changed? Better education and improved job opportunities for women mean that it has become quite expensive for them to leave the labor force to have more children.  The improved availability of birth control technology and liberalization of abortion rules in some countries mean that it is easier for women to avoid that outcome.  

Another reason for the particularly sharp decline in Mexico is the cultural influence of the United States.  NAFTA, our mass media, the more widespread use of English, and the large number of people going back and forth (legally or otherwise) mean that Mexicans are increasingly influenced by our culture, and that implies fewer babies.  The United States also has a fertility rate of 2.1, but that is the same as it was in 1990.  Mexico is becoming more similar to the United States, which must frustrate their nationalists.  

The main point for the United States is that we have only a temporary problem with illegal immigration from Mexico.  For another decade or a bit more we must attempt to limit such entry, but then the problem will fade like the smile on the Cheshire Cat. Lou Dobbs, Rep. Tancredo and their nationalistic friends can calm down and relax.  

By Robert M. Dunn, Jr., professor of economics, George Washington University, June 29, 2007

If you answer the multiple-choice questions below and e-mail to lessonanswers@mymontebello.com with “Lesson answers” in the subject field, you will be credited toward a “certificate of recognition in community affairs” to be awarded in 2007 by a local nonprofit organization.  

1. What will be more decisive in stopping illegal immigration?

(a) The declining fertility rate in Latin America .

(b) The wall being built along the Mexican border.  

2.  What is contributing to the declining fertility rate?

(a) Better education and improved job opportunities for women.

(b) Laws against having too many children.

(c) The cultural influence of the United States .  

3. What might be a consequence of decreased immigration into the United States ?

(a) Increased immigration from Africa and Asia .

(b) A labor shortage.

  No one can earn a million dollars honestly.
William Jennings Bryan, 1860 – 1925,
an American lawyer, statesman, and politician, three times the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States.

The decadent international but individualistic capitalism in the hands of which we found ourselves after the war is not a success. It is not intelligent. It is not beautiful. It is not just. It is not virtuous. And it doesn't deliver the goods.
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Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest [sic] of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.
John Maynard Keynes, 1883 – 1946,
a British economist whose ideas, called Keynesian economics, had a major impact on modern economic and political theory, as well as on many governments’ fiscal policies.  

In part one, we looked at the features of modern-day capitalism as practiced here in the United States.  In part two, we read of the role played by natural disasters in boosting a local economy.  In this part, we look at the mix of tradition and transaction.  

I remember a science-fiction story in which a boy from another planet was visiting Earth.  As he walked through a bazaar, he was continually asked to buy something.  Refusing, he was reported to the police.  Apparently, there was a law to spend money so that merchants could earn money.  

A very interesting study would be one which showed (a) the creation of holidays and (b) the transformation of holidays into times of heightened economic activity.  The most notable transformation has been that of Halloween, with outdoor decorations now coming into fashion.  

Personal observations:  

There are other, lesser holidays, like Grandparents’ Day and Columbus Day.  Two questions:  when would we reach a saturation point?  What additional activities would arise for major and lesser holidays?  

It seems as if it would be necessary to find ways to impel and compel people to part with their money in order to keep the economy going.  Can one argue that capitalism is not the best expression of human character?  

FOR EVERYONE.  Computer-virus alert.  “You’ve receive a greeting card from…” or some variation on that in your e-mail inbox.  This is a real threat to your computer.  For more information, http://www.snopes.com/computer/virus/postcard.asp . 

FOR COMMUNITY LEADERS, TEACHERS, PARENTS, YOUTH.  Ideas for making a difference.  From the newsletter of the National Service-Learning Clearinghouse, December, 2007:  The Kid's Guide to Service Projects: Over 500 Service Ideas for Young  People Who Want to Make A Difference.  In this comprehensive guide you will find hundreds of service project ideas, both large and small. The author provides examples of care of  animals, community development and beautification, crime fighting, environmental concerns, friendship, health promotion, holiday celebrations, homelessness, hunger, literacy, advocacy to people with special needs, civic awareness, safety, advocacy of elderly, and transportation as social issues in which young people's service can make a difference. http://www.servicelearning.org/library/lib_cat/index.php?library_id=2918  

FOR TEACHERS, PARENTS, YOUTH.  Be on YouTube and win.  QuantumShift.tv is launching the 'Be the Change, Share the Story' School Video Contest, challenging teams of students at 1-12 schools across the US and Canada to make a difference and tell the world.  They just have to pick a social or environmental project and make two short videos about their work on it.  The first tells how they plan to make a difference, and the follow-up video shows how they did. Students, viewers and celebrity judges can log on and vote for their favorite videos.  The top teams in each age group will win $50,000 in cash and prizes for their schools.  QuantumShift.tv wants to empower kids to “Be the Change, and Share the Story.” ...The only catch is that the deadline for the first part of the contest is January 31st.  Let us know if your students participate in this project!  For more information, http://www.quantumshift.tv/schools and http://www.creativeaction.org/.