Ready or Not, Here It Comes!  

Disaster Earthquake Scenario Unveiled for Southern California  

Scientists today unveiled a hypothetical Scenario describing how a magnitude 7.8 Southern California earthquake —similar to the recent earthquake in China — would impact the region, causing loss of lives and massive damage to infrastructure, including critical transportation, power, and water systems.  

In the scenario, the earthquake would kill 1800 people, injure 50,000, cause $200 billion in damage, and have long-lasting social and economic consequences. This is the most comprehensive analysis ever of what a major Southern California earthquake would mean, and is the scientific framework for what will be the largest earthquake preparedness drill in California history, scheduled for November 13, 2008. ...  

Fire doubles the fatalities and economic losses. Around Southern California , there will be 1,600 fires started large enough to warrant a 911 call, and some fires merge into conflagrations that burn hundreds of city blocks. Assuming no Santa Ana winds, the models still indicate a further $65 billion in direct losses and $22 billion in indirect losses from the fires. ...  

May 22, 2008.  Complete news release, including the details of such an earthquake, is at http://online.wr.usgs.gov/ocw/htmlmail/2008/May/22/20080522GSnr.html.  

If you answer the multiple-choice questions below and e-mail to lessonanswers@mymontebello.com with “Lesson answers” in the subject field, you will be credited toward a “certificate of recognition in community affairs” to be awarded in 2008 by a local nonprofit organization. 

 1. What would a 7.8 earthquake in Southern California do, according to scientists?

(a) Kill 1,800 people and injure 50,000 others.

(b) Cause two hundred billion dollars in damage.

2. How should we prepare?

(a) Have a cell phone ready at all times to call 9-1-1.

(b) Not depend on 9-1-1 at all, because police and fire services would be overwhelmed. 

July 17, 2008